It’s a Marathon, Then a Sprint, Then a Marathon

Just after the new year, I started the Couch-to-5K running program.  It’s designed to get someone who lives a sedentary lifestyle ready to run a 5K in just nine weeks.  This Saturday I finished Week 5, day 3:

Brisk five-minute warmup walk, then jog 2.5 miles (or 25 minutes).

Whoever designed this program is a genius.  Every time the workout steps it up, I think, “Oh man, there’s no way, this is gonna kill me.”  Not only hasn’t it killed me, after most workouts I feel energized, powerful, healthy, alive.

This workout, the 20-minute run, is a big hurdle in the program; the longest run prior to that is 8 minutes.  The 8-minute ones weren’t a picnic, and I’d never run for 20 continuous minutes in my life.  Yet, come Saturday, my running partner and I settled into a slow-but-steady groove; still going after 15, 16, 17 minutes.

Lately, we’d been trying to “kick” to the finish of these workouts; pick up the pace for the last thirty seconds or so.  But, with all these walk/jog/walk/jog exercises, I’d spent about six weeks “running” and had never actually run.  Pacing myself has always been a problem for me, and I’d been fighting the urge to just take off for weeks.  But, when my partner said “a minute left, you wanna sprint?” I said "Okay"—and I took off.

In sailing, there’s something called a bow wave: the water being parted and displaced by the ship’s bow.  A ship’s speed is partly limited by this resistance; a normal sailboat can’t go fast enough to get up over this bow wave, and start sailing on the water.  However, with the right shape of hull, and enough power, a watercraft can hydroplane—skim on the top of the waves, free of the resistance of the water.

That's what it felt like during that run: I was skimming on top of the pavement, slicing through the air,  arms and legs swinging free, feeling only explosion under the balls of my feet as they touched, touched, touched the pavement.  Free from the slow-but-steady groove, free from the sustainable pace, I was completely unleashed and absolutely flying.

It dawned on me that sixty seconds of sprinting is an awful lot of sprinting, and my eventually my Emersonesque “transparent eyeball” moment fell back down to Earth with a lot of being really tired.  However, I was amazed—when the clock hit 00:00, I didn’t hack, cough, retch, or collapse, I just breathed really hard over and over and over.  I was spent, but I still felt energized, powerful, healthy, and alive.

It was those weeks of jogging, though, that made it possible.  At the beginning of the program, sixty seconds of jogging felt like an epic crucible: it seized my calves, made me cough and hack, and pushed me almost to my limit.  Just weeks later, though, I jogged for 19 minutes, sprinted about a minute more, and felt energized, not defeated.

So it is with free agency.*

The Lions’ out-of-character burst of activity in the wee hours of Friday morning added three solid pieces at three critical positions of need—and those additions made the team better.  While signings like Bryant Johnson and Grady Jackson certainly “filled”, at least on paper, holes in the Lions’ starting lineup, we can see that the sum of all those leftover parts didn’t actually upgrade the quality of the team. 

The Lions spent last year furiously churning the roster, scouring the waiver wire, signing practice-squadders, making trades, working out street free agents, signing and cutting guys left and right.  All the while, they were desperately hoping to find some foundational depth, youth, and talent; trying to supply the coaching staff with the raw material needed to build a winner.

If the Lions had made these same signings this past offseason, it wouldn’t have done them nearly as much good.  Replace Bryant Johnson with Nate Burleson, Dewayne White with Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Landon Cohen with Corey Williams . . . how many more wins do the Lions get?  Not many.

As Mike Rosenberg of the Free Press said:

The signings of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson and the trade for Corey Williams make sense, not just in a vacuum but in the context of what the Lions are trying to do. Finally, there is a plan.

Exactly.  With the 2009 draft class, and the entire 2009 year’s worth of coming and goings, the roster has taken shape.  There are some real assets for the future, and some cornerstones (Stafford, Johnson, Delmas) upon which to build.  These three acquisitions fit nicely into place—but that’s only because the past year’s worth of effort has built a place for them to fit into!

Now, there are still plenty of niches yet to be filled.  Commenters rightly christened the release of Patrick Buchanon, and allowance of Will James and Anthony Henry to leave, “Cornerback Armageddon”.  This Armchair-Linebackerian phrase fits perfectly—not because Buchanon, Henry, or James are devastating losses, but because there isn’t a single NFL-caliber corner on the roster behind them.  Four or five “good dime/okay nickel” guys, perhaps, but nobody who could be entrusted with covering an NFL wide receiver one-on-one. 

With top free agent corner Dunta Robinson gone to Atlanta, second-best corner Leigh Bodden wanting nothing to do with this franchise, and word on third-best corner Lito Sheppard, it looked as though the Lions’ options were between slim and none.

Instead, Mayhew did his thing, hammering out a deal to send the Lions’ sixth-round pick to Atlanta for newly-demoted-for-Dunta CB Chris Houston.  Moreover, the Lions are rumored to be entertaining a younger depth-type corner, Jonathan Wade from St. Louis.  Together with holdovers Eric King and Jack Williams, the Lions should have mix of experienced young veterans fighting for the #2, #3, and #4 cornerback spots.

This begs the question: when will the Lions fill the #1 spot?  Patience, friends—you can’t keep up a sprint forever, and this one’s already over.  However, the Lions will go back to the marathon: signing, trading, and releasing guys according to their plan, upgrading and remaking whenever there’s a chance.  Oh, and drafting.  Don’t forget drafting.

*I made you wait 500 words before I got to football.  Did you think I was going to pull it off?

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,nfl free agency,nfl,chris houston,johnathan wade,dunta robinson,leigh bodden,lito sheppard,atlanta falcons,running,trancendentalism

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The NFL Combine, the Wheat, and the Chaff

It’s begun: the annual NFL convention/festival where rookies-to-be are injected, inspected, detected, and infected with hopes of getting selected—and the fear of getting neglected.

I have no idea who named the event the "combine", but it fits.  I’m sure it was intended as a reference to the farm implement: a device that takes up crops, draws out the nutritious grain, and leaves the waste behind.  The correlation is obvious: separating the wheat from the chaff; the men from the boys.

To me, the name “Combine” has darker correlations.  Ken Kesey’s One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest is narrated by a character who sees “the Combine” in almost everything.  The Combine is his name for the engines of conformity that drive our culture: everything we experience, from children’s games to table manners, prepares us to slot neatly into our prescribed social niche.  Behavior that does not fit is discouraged, and those who simply cannot fit into the larger whole are weeded out—medicated, institutionalized, imprisoned, lobotomized.

Nobody is going to institutionalize a small-school cornerback who cuts a 4.69 40, of course, but it’s the same idea.  Athletes are weighed and measured in several dimensions; if they don’t measure up, their value falls.  Athletes are given a thorough medical workout; if an old injury spells bad news for the future, their value falls.  Athletes are interviewed day and night by journalists, scouts, coaches, general managers, even entire front offices; if they can’t handle the interrogations, their value falls.  Finally, they’re made to do drills: real football drills, often against each other.  If they make a mistake, or simply fail to impress, their value falls.

The NFL is a business–a BIG business.  There are 32 franchises worth nearly a billion dollars each.  The pressure for an athlete to perform isn’t simply from within, or from a coach he respects and fears—it’s from his owner and fans, demanding he justify their mind-boggling financial investment in him.

The combine, for athletes, is a five-day, full-body job interview; every step they take could be the one that costs them their chosen career.  Do they fit?  Can they hang?  Are they wheat—or are they chaff?

As a television observer, the most information doesn’t come from the 40 or the bench press—these often have little bearing on game strength or speed.  What I love watching is the drillwork.  Seeing these players in nothing but very clearly labelled Under Armor workout gear, going through actual football motions, you start to understand the jargonized language scouts have developed to describe some of the ineffable qualities of athleticism that separate the wheat and the chaff: short-area-quickness.  maxed-out.  suddenness.  stiff hips.

One of the most memorable moments of recent combines was watching Joe Thomas do drillwork.  He was so phenomenally composed, so perfect in form and execution.  Things other athletes were giving everything they had just to pull off, he executed with picture-perfect technique every time, maintaining balance and composure.

He was so plainly head-and-shoulders above every other tackle prospect there, I couldn’t believe it.  When he quickly established himself as one of the better tackles in the league, I wasn’t surprised.  It really focused how I think about the draft, and how fans latch on to “their guys”, many of whom they’ve never seen play.  You can check out all the numbers.  You can read all the magazines, websites, blogs, and forums.  But until you watch these guys compete on a level playing field, you can’t see what they’re really made of.

Peter King recently wrote an article poo-poohing the importance of the combine.  There’s a key bit of information in there, though: his source is a highly placed NFL exec, who notes that his draft board is 90% set before the combine, because they’ve already watched all the film.  They’ve already watched all the tape.  They’ve already scouted these players—in the case of top prospects, watched every snap they’ve ever taken.  The combine is for confirming what’s already known, or uncover what red flags aren’t known, than about finding out whether these players are wheat or chaff.

Finally, a couple of interesting links:

• @movethesticks
• Orange & Brown Report Live Blog
• Pat Kirwan's interesting prospects
• Michael Schottey, Lions Blogger (I'm not jealous!)

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Trading Spaces: Lions Dealing #2 Overall Pick?

Lions GM Martin Mayhew, with and without wig he wears while performing as his alter ego, bass virtuoso “Victor Wooten”

Jason LaCanfora of the NFL Network is reporting that the Lions are already in active discussions with several teams to swap the #2 overall pick.  My reactions to this are varied, intense, and conflicting:

Good luck, fellas.  Given the financial realities of the #2 overall pick, there has to be a team out there that wants to shell out thirty million dollars, guaranteed, to a player that hasn’t taken a snap in the NFL—moreover, they have to be willing to part with a value package that the Lions would accept in order to move down.

I told you so.  As obvious as the connection is between two excellent defensive tackle prospects at the top of the draft, and the Lions’ burning need for defensive line help, the Lions must not be sold on either as a long-term fit for the system.  Both are listed between 290 and 300 pounds, depending on who you believe, and various scouts will tell you various things about their respective potential to get bigger.  The bottom line, though, is this: they may be inside/outside ‘tweeners in this system, and you don’t build your franchise around a ‘tweener.

*&!*^%#$%%#^!&*.  These are two elite DT prospects!  Elite DTs don’t grow on stinking trees!  There are only a handful of top-notch interior disruptors—and with the trend towards the 3-4, they’re in higher demand than ever, either as tackles or ends.  Unless the Lions are moving down only one or two spots, to a team that wants a quarterback, a trade down would mean sayonara to Suh or McCoy.

If not Suh, then who?  I maintain that until the Combine is complete, all talk about specific slots for specific players is moot, especially at the very top of the draft.  Remember, at this time last year many Lions fans were threatening to never watch the team again if they didn’t draft Andre Smith.  A lot is still in flux at this point, and slides up and down a spot or two radically alter the draft board.  Still, there are a few logical targets:

• Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech DE:
  

  Morgan is by far the most versatile defensive end in this draft class, but the talent is right there to match it. He has the ideal frame, measurables, technique, and attitude for life in the trenches.

• Eric Berry, Tennesee S:
  

  Just about everything about Berry is impressive — and that’s not even including his pure football skills. He was a captain of the Tennessee team and regarded as having great character.

• Russell Okung, Oklahoma State OT:
  

  An agile player who moves well on the field. Can get to every angle and the second level. Will not struggle against speed rushers due to his ability to take smart angles.

• Rolando McClain, Alabama ILB:
  

  McClain is the most sure-thing as a middle linebacker prospect in the draft since Patrick Willis. He’s a prototypical combination of size, athleticism and intelligence.

• C.J. Spiller, Clemson RB:
  

  His talent is undeniable and the fact that he can change a game in so many ways is going to boost his stock even more. On top of his unmatched talent level among running backs in this class, Spiller is a high character, team captain tough guy. He will be an early impact player that could evolve in to the next great dynamic threat out of the backfield.

• Joe Haden, Florida CB:
  

  There is no better college cornerback than Haden. He’s come along this season as a complete corner capable of shutting down a side of the field and helping against the run.

Depending on who you listen to, and who of those you listen to you believe, the Lions could be in the mix for any of these players at any of the positions between 1.2 and 1.10.  Martin Mayhew even codified something I’d been saying for weeks: the Lions are in the market for any position in any round, except for quarterback.  That brings me to my final take:

Yeah, right.  This is Martin Mayhew and the Lions we’re talking about.  At this time last year, Tom Kowalski was running into the “unprecedented information lockdown” at Allen Park.  Today, Jason LaCanfora of NFL.com comes out of nowhere with a report that the Lions are actively shopping the 1.2—scooping all the local media?  With this tagline?

Some teams have interest in Lions LB Ernie Sims as well, according to league sources, but the prospect of him being included in any deal along with the second overall pick seems bleak now because Detroit values him as a building block on defense.

The Lions are beating off potential Ernie Sims trade partners with a stick, because they can’t afford to let him go?  Forgive me, but—yeah, right.  This blogger took quite a bit of heat for suggesting last month that the Lions need to get what they can for Sims, since he’s likely a spare part after 2010 . . .

Therefore, I’m calling this a calculated gambit; the Lions leveraging the media to generate their own circumstances.  They’re leaking that many teams want to trade up to 1.2, and they’d be willing to settle for three or four pieces of value in exchange to sit in their catbird seat.  They’re also leaking that while many teams are calling about Sims, teams had better be willing to bring value, because he’s a valuable piece of their future.

Am I right?  Is this a PR conceit, a great scoop by LaCanfora, or something in the middle?  As Kowalski noted, it almost doesn’t matter; the Lions are in a strong position whether they stand pat or move down.  Still, Mayhew is all about maximizing his leverage—and by design or by accident, the games have already begun. 

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Lions’ 2010 Offseason: Offense or Defense?

A hot topic of debate these days is whether the Lions should “go offense” or “go defense” in the draft.  Many say the Lions have had the worst defense in the NFL for the past two seasons, and they won’t be competitive until it’s addressed.  Others have argued that the Lions should “complete” the offense—if one unit is very good, the Lions may be more competitive than if both units were merely less bad.

I say it’s all missing the point.

This is the way the typical fan would approach an offseason, were they given the reigns to their team.  Keep the starters who played well last year, and any first- and second-year players.  Declare the remaining, unfilled starting positions “holes”, and add those positions to the “shopping list”. Then, rank the positions on the shopping list in your perceived order of need.

In free agency, go after the names you best recognize who play positions at the top of your shopping list.  As free agents are acquired, scratch their positions off the list.  Then, in each round, note your highest-ranked remaining need, and take the best player available at that position.  If, at the end of the draft, all of the “holes” have been “filled”, your team had a "good offseason".

Unfortunately, that’s not how you build a team.

Last year, the Lions churned the roster like crazy, trying to cycle in any amount of talent they could.  They used and abused their #1 waiver priority, bringing recent cuts from all over the league in for tryouts.  They also added some quality “name” veterans, guys like Larry Foote, Grady Jackson, Philip Buchanon . . . at the time, we called these guys “stopgaps”, players who could play at a decent level for a year or two while the Lions rebuilt the talent base of the team.

The funny thing is, it's now a year later; many of these one- or two-year players now only have one (or no) years left here in Detroit.  We as fans have to get over the idea that when Larry Foote was signed last year to a one-year deal, that the Lions were “set” at middle linebacker.  They were never any such thing; they aren’t now, either.

Unfortunately, it’s going to take at least this draft, and the next one, before Lions fans can look at the “starters” the way normal NFL teams do: as solid pieces that will be in place for several years.  Outside of Calvin Johnson, and most of the players from the 2009 draft class, every single position on the roster is a “hole”.

The Lions simply can’t afford to shackle themselves to perceived need, be it immediate or medium-term.  Practically every position on the field is still in play for practically every round in the draft; about the only thing that the Lions couldn’t use is a quarterback or tight end in the top few rounds.  The Lions can—and should—take the best player on the board, regardless of what position, or side of the field, they play on. 

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Senior Bowl Bullet Points

Icon SMI

All last week, I combed through available Senior Bowl information.  After highlighting some potential targets the Lions might be looking at, I compiled notes from all practice reports I could find, sat down in a comfy chair, and watched the first half or so with a careful eye and a ready spreadsheet.  The results?

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN:

• Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan: I’ll cut right to the chase: dude's a beast, period.  He completely outclassed every other player on the field.  He’s not the right size/frame for this defense, and he won’t be there at the top of the second, but it’s worth mentioning that he’s a hell of a pass rusher.
• Geno Atkins, DT, Georgia: The 6'-1", 286-pound Atkins flashed incredible speed and penetration all week in practice, and looked dominant in the game itself.  Blowing back several different guards, and getting good push against double-teams, too, Atkins really caught my eye—as anyone who was reading my Twitter feed knows.  Obviously, at 286, Atkins doesn’t have the size Schwartz and Cunningham want—but he doesn’t look flabby and maxed-out like last year’s Senior Bowl darling, Peria Jerry, did.

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN:

• Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: The virtues of the 6’-5”, 325-pound left guard had been extolled by all, including Mlive.com's Phil Zaroo, all week long.  Talk of his size, athleticism, strength, and total domination of drillwork had spread far and wide.  In the game, however, Iupati really struggled—especially when they moved him out of usual left guard spot. NFLN's Mike Mayock was the color man, and pointed out that Iupati was “grabbing” instead of “punching”.  That is, slowing down his man by bear hugging him and hoping to control him, rather than driving his hands into the other guy’s chest and pushing him around.  Iupati went back to left guard and looked better, but there’s no question that he had a terrible performance to cap a week of hype.
• Ciron Black, OT/OG, LSU: Black stands an impressive 6’-5”, 331.  He played both guard and tackle, and showed excellent athleticism for his size.  At tackle, Black struggled against Brandon Graham—but then, so did everyone else.  During practice, however, Black showed equal adeptness in handling both speed and power rushers.  Coming into this week, he was a mid-round guard, but if he performs at the combine looking like a legit LT, his stock will rise significantly.  I'm hoping for somewhere in the middle . . .
• Mike Johnson, OG, Alabama: according to SI, the 6'-5", 306-pound cut an imposing figure at the weigh-in, and played up to his stature doing the first day of practice.  In the game, I was really impressed at his power, feet, and control; he drove guys back.  Chad Reuter of NFLDraftScout.com noted that Johnson had no problem with “Mount Cody” during practice. 
• John Jerry, OT/OG, Ole Miss: Jerry, the brother of Peria, weighed in at a whopping 6’-5 1/2”, 332.  Absolutely built like a tackle, Jerry has played both RG and RT for Mississippi, and excelled in the first two practices at both of those spots.  However, they tried him at LT and he really struggled.  I didn’t see much of him during the game, but he’s a prospect I’m going to watch very carefully at the combine.

DEFENSIVE BACKS:

• Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State: the 5’-10” cornerback got Jim Schwartz' attention with an enormous custom-painted RV in the parking lot—and mine with some good coverage and strong tackling.  Word was that he flashed outstanding ball skills in drills all week long.  According to Bill Huber of Scout.com, his best performance was on a one-on-one coverage drill. ($)
• Taylor Mays, S, USC:  Mays is well known amongst Lions fans, having garnered a little hype as a candidate to be their #1 overall pick last year.  Mays went back to USC and had a okay-but-not-great senior season.  Reasons for his relative anonymity have varied from “teams now scheme away from him” to “he’s better off as a linebacker”—but it’s clear that Mays is nowhere near a #2 overall pick.  During practice, he dominated on Monday, then was invisible the rest of the week.  During the game, he whiffed on several tackles, but did have a very nice interception.  Mays remains a head-scratcher: a prospect with Top 10 size and speed, but wild inconsistency.

If you're wondering where your favorite prospect is, don't worry. This wasn't meant to be a complete list--just players at positions of need who established a rep during practice week, who stood out to me during the game, or both.  If you’re wondering where the complete three-down backs with blazing speed are, they weren’t at the Senior Bowl trying to improve their stock.  Same goes for wideouts who can draw coverage away from Megatron, cornerbacks who can step in as our #1 starter, “franchise left tackles”, etc.

I've been getting draft questions non-stop for weeks now, and I’ve kept replying: “too early, too early, too early”.  There’s a rhythm to this pre-draft dance.  The college All-Star games are just the first step.  Watching them, and keeping tabs on the practice reports, gives me an idea of who to pay special attention to at the combine—which is when we really learn what’s going on.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Defensive Tackles

*NOTE: VIDDLER HAS TAKEN DOWN ALL MY FILM CLIPS AND BANNED ME.  WORKING ON IT.

Here are my “bottom line” summaries of each of the defensive tackles on the roster, as of the end of the 2008 season:

Cory Redding: The Lions are committed to Redding, money-wise, for at least 2009 and maybe 2010.  Look for him to be starting as a 4-3 UT or 3-4 DE/NT in '09.

Shaun Cody: the Lions' interest in retaining Cody will probably depend on the chosen defensive alignment.  If they choose a 3-4, they may pay to keep him as an end. If they stay in a 4-3, he could be allowed to walk.

Andre Fluellen: a talented natural one-gap player who could blossom into a force as he goes through NFL training and nutrition. In 2009 I see him as a 4-3 SDE/UT, or a 3-4 DE.

Landon Cohen: Cohen is a true 4-3 one-gap nose tackle who was born a little too small. If he could add a lot of bulk he could stay at NT--otherwise, he's another 4-3 UT/3-4 DE project.

Chuck Darby: Darby could make a good 3-4 end, but would be a liability at NT. No matter the alignment, Darby is a valuable rotational player who brings emotional leadership on and off the field--and comes at a low cost. If he'll stay, we should keep him.

Langston Moore: Moore will probably be the first guy cut . . . if he sticks around, he'll be 4-3 DT depth.

It’s obvious that Mayhew and Schwartz saw the exact same thing that you and I do in this list: six players who have no business starting in the NFL, all of whom barely flirt with 300 pounds.  Of these, only Fluellen and Cohen remain on the roster.  Redding, of course, was flipped for Julian Peterson in a truly excellent trade.  He played 15 games for the Seahawks, starting only 3, and managed just 18 tackles (16 solo) and two sacks.
I had very high hopes for Andre Fluellen—but they still can’t figure out if he is an end or a tackle.  He was cycled between the two spots constantly, filling in wherever needed.  I said in last year’s breakdown that:

I see him as a replacement for Cory Redding: a big, lean defensive tackle with a motor and tackling skills . . . I think if he could add 20 or 30 pounds over the next several years and work on his strength and technique, his short, wide frame and high motor could allow him to be a pocket-collapsing nose tackle.

Shockingly, Fluellen’s 2009 production was almost identical to that of Redding’s: in 14 games (3 starts), Flu garnered 18 tackles (9 solo) and 1.5 sacks.  I no longer think he has NT potential in either alignment; he lacks the natural bulk to be a run-stopper.  His body may yet mature, but he’s just not built like a natural 1-technique DT.
We saw evidence of this in Week 8, against the Rams.  Here are two plays where Flu is asked to line stop the run as 1-technique:

On the first play, we see Flu get good burst and initial penetration.  He follows Jackson’s first steps, to the strong side of the field (bottom of the frame).  Unfortunately, it’s a counter.  Jackson cuts back to the weak side, the guard easily seals Fluellen off, and Andre can only crane his head around as Jackson runs past.  Compounding matters, the weakside end took a very wide path upfield, leaving a five-yard-wide hole filled only by 188-pound Kevin Hobbs.  The results are predictable.
On the second play, it's a simple affair: he gets blown off the ball.  Flu’s manhandled by the guard, technically doubled by the tackle—who hardly needs bother—and keeps getting pushed back until Jackson slams into him, seven yards downfield.  Not what you want from your nose tackle on a first-and-10 run up the middle.
On the other hand, Fluellen’s athleticism tantalizes:

This is a wide receiver screen, a play where a defensive tackle almost cannot make an impact.  However, we see him use that burst to shoot through the gap the pulling guard just vacated, getting in the backfield before the center can lay hands on him.  The quarterback has already released the ball, so Flu turns to the sideline without slowing down.  He pursues to the end of the play—and, if the receiver had shaken the corner and cut inside, he might have made the tackle.  A sideline-to-sideline DT?
Here're a couple of very interesting clips from the Redskins game:

This is the 3-3-5 nickel alignment that, when discussed in the preseason, sent Lions fans into a speculative tizzy.  These were on the Redskins’ second-to-last drive, and the Lions used this alignment almost exclusively—drawing a delay-of-game the first time they deployed it.  Sammie Hill, however, was on the sidelines with an ankle sprain, so Andre Fluellen was called upon to play nose tackle.
On the first play, Gun has the linebackers do a presnap dance all up and down the line, suggesting several different blitzes.  When the snap does come, the linebackers all drop back into coverage, and Fluellen ends up mostly one-on-one with giant guard Derrick Dockery.  After a decent initial push gets stymied, Flu keeps the motor going, and manages to get upfield—even forcing a mild hold!
On the second play (and other plays on that drive that I didn’t clip), the ‘Skins took no chances.  Flu is triple-teamed, while the ends are merely blocked one-on-one.  Though the third guy is mostly there for moral support—the center and right guard pretty much neutralize Fluellen—it’s nice to see another team make absolutely sure Flu doesn’t get free while the QB is waiting for deep routes to develop.
This is the duality of Fluellen: he's a very interesting inside-outside prospect, an undeniably talented player who’s far more athletic than a man his size has a right to be.  However, he’s a very, very long way from being a complete defensive tackle.  He cannot consistently hold the line against big guards, and is consistently neutralized by double teams.  However, the Lions’ lack of depth along the defensive line is such that his versatility and potential nearly ensure his roster spot for 2010.
Bottom line: Fluellen is a very versatile, high-effort player only two years removed from being a third-round draft pick.  Whether he plays inside, outside, or both in 2010, Flu should get plenty of rotational snaps next season.
One of the biggest surprises of training camp was Landon Cohen. Coming out of college at 6’-3 1/2”, 278 pounds, the Lions picked Cohen in the seventh round of the 2008 draft, and immediately threw him on the Rod Marinelli Under Tackle Pile. A year later, he added over twenty pounds of pure muscle, proved he could bench 225 pounds fifty times in a row, and earned a spot in the rotation.
Cohen is extremely lean, and very athletic—he ran track during all four of his years at Ohio University—and yet he’s powerful enough to play DT in the NFL. I happened to bump into him at the “Lions Uncaged!” fan event, and I was completely blown away by his physique. At his bigger weight, he’s not just lean—he’s cut, especially in the upper body.
Let's bring up my scouting report from last year again:

Cohen is a true 4-3 one-gap nose tackle who was born a little too small. If he could add a lot of bulk he could stay at NT--otherwise, he's another 4-3 UT/3-4 DE project.

Up to a listed 300 pounds from his original 278, Cohen has indeed "added a lot of bulk", and the Lions have used him as both a 1-tech nose tackle and a 3-tech under tackle in their 4-3 alignment this year. I'm not sure he'll ever have the junk in the trunk needed to be an immovable run-stopping 1-tech, but if he hasn’t yet maxxed out his frame, his potential is great.
What I like from Cohen is his patience—much like a tailback who waits for a hole and then explodes, Cohen has a great sense of where and when a crease in the line will open up.  Watch these two runs from the Rams game; see how he first moves laterally, then bursts past the center:

That motor and burst is great, but he's still got to be able to win one-on-ones in order to be more than a situational player. Here are a couple of clips that show him getting a lot of upfield push--even if he doesn’t make the play, he beats his man and limits the offense’s options.  He’ll have to do this more consistently, and actually make those plays, to win a full-time starting gig, but for now, this shows a lot of progress:

Here's one more I liked. This is the 4th-and-1 goal line stand from the Redskins game. Cohen's lined up as an end, and again he shows that knack for rushing through the gaps opened by center or guard motion.  If you’re wondering which Lion is Cohen, he’s the one who gets a couple yards into the backfield.

The run was designed to go outside of the OT, so Cohen couldn't make the play.  But again, we see his quick feet, upper body strength, and instincts making up for what he lacks in bulk.  Unlike Fluellen, he’s not a straight-line runner who could play outside.  He’s a true DT with good short-area quickness.
This is a good example of how you can't scout body types by listed size: Fluellen is theoretically 6’-2”, 302, and Cohen is listed at 6'-3", 300.   But look at Cohen in that last clip: as the camera zooms in from behind the Lions’ line, you can see Cohen’s shoulders are so wide, his jersey has to crease to stretch over his pads.  He’s built like a DT, he’s just not yet a finished example of one.
Bottom line: Cohen is rapidly developing from a seventh-round flier into a useful rotational DT. While he'll never be a 320-pound line-clogger, he's only 23.  If he focuses on lower-body development, improves his leverage, and continues to hone his technique, he’ll be a very nice complement to/backup for/situational replacement of Sammie Hill.
The Lions’ biggest free agent signing—in at least three senses of the word—was former Raiders, Saints, Packers, Falcons, Jaguars, and Falcons DT Grady Jackson.  Standing 6’-2”, 345 pounds, Jackson’s picture may as well hang in the dictionary next to the word stopgap:  “something that fills the place of something else that is lacking”.  Obviously, there was a big, empty space in the middle of the Lions’ defensive line—and Grady Jackson, at least partially, filled it.
The excitement when the Lions snagged Jackson was palpable.  Jackson was an immediate infusion of legitimate run-stopping ability, something the Lions had absolutely none of in 2008.  I gushed that he’d be worth a half a yard-per-carry all by himself!  Actually, this might have been true; the Lions’ opponent’s gross YpC for 2009 was 4.42, down from 5.14 last season (-0.72 YpC).
Jackson was brought in explicitly as a situational player, not a full-time starter.  As a line-clogging run stopper, he really isn’t much use in passing situations anyway.  He was even deactivated for the Seattle game, because their running scheme is mostly draws and stretches—as Schwartz put it, "That's sideways chasing, and that's not his forte".
Unfortunately, even in his specific niche, Jackson wasn't an instant hit.  He was in and out of training camp--first battling an illness, then dealing with his brother's stunning, bizarre, depressing murder case.  Grady also had a four-game suspension hanging over his head, thanks to the well-known tale of the NFL and StarCaps.
Right up until the end of the preseason, it was unknown whether the Lions would have Jackson available.  Fortunately, Jackson wasn’t forced to serve that suspension at the beginning of the season.  Unfortunately, he didn’t help all that much either:

The first play, we see something that looks depressingly like 2008: both Grady (NT, towards top), and Sammie Hill (UT, towards bottom), are both driven way, way, way off the ball—Grady’s even being singled here!  Depressingly, this happened quite a bit in the Saints game.  The Saints' LG, Carl Nicks, absolutely owned Grady in this game.  He goes 6'-5", 343, but I was apalled by how a second-year 5th-round draft pick just pushed around one of the more prolific run-stoppers of recent NFL history.
The second play on that clip is a little more like it--Grady's briefly doubled, and gets pushed back--but then he stands his ground, gets an arm out and ends up making the tackle.  This is hardly an amazing play, but it's one that would never have been made if Cory Redding and Andre Fluellen were our starting tackles.
While reviewing the film, I found a disturbing tendency: a positively Rogers esque tendency to be unblockable when the Lions are already winning.  Check out these two plays from the Redskins game:

Seriously, this is heroic one-on-one domination, in both plays.  Look at the explosion Jackson gets off the line!  He sends his man reeling and flailing backwards with just his initial punch, then rushes, re-engages, and gets up in Campbell's grill.  In the sescond play, we see Jackson go low--real low.  He dives down underneath the right guard, gets into the backfield untouched, if on the ground, then does a push-up and makes an ankle tackle.  That's an incredible hustle play--and one I don't see on film when the score is 0-10, opponent instead of 10-0, Lions.
Here are two clips that are exactly what the Lions expect of Grady--no more, and no less:

In the first clip, we see Grady hold the point of attack.  Unfortunately, he doesn't make the play, but he at least gets a little push and fights off the block.  In the second play, he's initially doubled.  When the guard releases, Grady sees the tailback come back his way, and he gets an arm free to make the tackle.  Again, no world-destroying, just exactly what the Lions got him for.
The Rams game also bolstered my play-when-he-wanna-play theory.  Here are two plays, both classic DT situations with the Lions still in the game:

In the first one, it's a critical 3rd-and-1, with the Lions down 2-10.  The Rams make the critical mistake of trying to block Grady with one man. Not only does he blow that dude up, when Steven Jackson runs around Grady, he turns and pursues.  Like, he runs downfield!
In the second one, the Rams are backed up on their own 1-yard-line.  It's a tie game, and Grady smells two points.  Again, inexplicably, the Rams try to block him with only a guard--and if their tailback was any less of a juggernaut, Grady'd have gotten his man.
It's clear that the 10-to-15 snaps per game that Grady Jackson can contribute will not make for an effective run defense.  However, he was absolutely critical to the improvement the Lions’ run defense made this season—from “apocalyptically terrible” to merely bad.  Grady’s under contract for two more years, and as a situational/rotational guy, he’s still useful.
Bottom line: Jackson turned in a B- performance in doing exactly what the Lions asked—stop the run on 1st and 10.  Even if the Lions draft or sign a three-down starter, Jackson can still contribute in that role.  I expect to see him back on the roster in 2010, though hopefully not as a “starter”.
Outside of Matthew Stafford, no 2009 Lions draft pick was more talked-about, or more important to the future of the team, than DT Sammie Hill.  A 6’-4”, 329-pound man-child from tiny Stillman College, Hill came to the NFL a tabula rasa, a natural born defensive tackle with zero coaching or technique base. 
Jim Schwartz immediately compared Hill—and scouting hill—to Leon Lett, the small-school big man who helped anchor the Dallas Cowboys dynasty of the mid-90s:

He was playing teams like Northern State and some of these others; I can't even remember some of the schools. The film was real grainy. You don't have the nice sideline and end zone (views), you got end zone that looks like it was filmed from the moon. And you just saw one guy that was twice as big as everybody else and then there'd be a pile and then you'd see somebody get knocked out of the pile the other way and you'd know that Leon was there.
With Sammie, it was a lot of the same thing. Part of the film – literally, they took it from the booth and you can see the reflection of the guy filming it more than you can see down on the field. But then again, you see guys get knocked backwards a lot. You see him show up around the quarterback. He played end in a 3-4 and they used him to sort of shut down half the field.

The consensus was that Hill was a 2-3 year project, an intriguing prospect with the tools to, someday, with the right coaching, develop into a special player.  Instead, the desperately undersized Lions plunked Hill into the starting lineup from Day One.
Hill—despite never having attended an NFL game prior to being drafted—walked onto the field and did pretty well for a rookie.  He still took his lumps, though:

One thing I noticed all season long was Hill's susceptibility to trap blocking, downblocking, reach blocking, zone blocking, or really anything that wasn’t straightforward one-on-one or two-on-one.  It’s like it didn’t occur to Sammie that anyone other than the guy directly across from him might exist.  As strong as Landon Cohen’s instincts were about the offensive line’s intentions, Hill’s were that weak.
To be fair, this is to be expected from a guy who was playing 3-4 end at a D-II school against guys half his size nine months before the above clip was shot.  To be fairer, the guard doing the blocking in that clip is 2010 Pro Bowl starter Jahri Evans; it's not like Hill was getting dominated by a scrub.
Even having taken his early lumps, Hill's natural talent was apparent.  Here's a beautiful clip of him holding his own against a true double-team, fighing them off, and then contributing to the play.  This isn't a chip, or an assist, this is a center and guard both blocking Sammie with everything they've got.  Yet, after initially getting pushed back, he recovers, and holds his ground:

Unfortunately, Hill "had an ankle" in that 'Skins game (to use The Grandmasters' parlance).  He missed the next three games, plus the bye, then came back against the Rams . . . strong:

Here we see two run plays where Hill proves he's too strong to block with just one guy.  Unfortunately, he seems a little more concerned with beating his man than actually tackling the runningback—but that much penetration forces an offense to adjust, and that’s what you need from a DT.
Frankly, folks, I think Sammie Hill is going to be seen as one of the sharpest late-round picks since Cortland Finnegan—a Schwartz-polished seventh-round diamond in the rough.  Hill is the Lions' only quality tackle, and we're only seeing the beginnings of what he could develop into.
He only mustered 14 solo tackles, and 12 assists, in his 12 starts.  He’s no pass rusher—he didn’t have a single sack—but he showed strength, power, and athleticism in a perfectly-sized package.  My hope is that a full offseason of NFL nutrition, strength training, and technique coaching with DL coach Bob Karmelowicz, the man who tutored Jared Allen in Kansas City, will help him take that next big step.
Bottom Line: Sammie Hill is already the Lions’ best defensive tackle, and should prove to be much better in 2010 and beyond.  He has the size, strength, and athleticism to become a perennial Pro Bowler, and his steady improvement from preseason to the end of the season shows the effort and coachability he’ll need to get there.  He’ll start for the Lions this season, and for many more to come.

Summary

The Lions are still desperate at this position.  They started with six players who, as I said, have no business starting in the NFL—and now they have a young, three-down starter on the rise, an aging situational run-stopper, a young, rotational, three-down NT/UT with upside, and a young inside-outside ‘tweener.
In order to continue building the defense that Schwartz and Cunningham envision, they'll have to acquire another starting defensive tackle, one with some real explosion and pass-rush ability.  Cohen is showing that he could develop into that player—if a little too small—but he won’t be that player next season.  Fluellen just isn’t built big enough to be an every-down DT in this system—and though the tools and potential are there, I haven’t yet seen anything from him that shows he can actually rush the passer, from either the end or tackle spot.
Reader SomeChoi commented that there’s a disconnect here between the highlights and warm fuzzy words above, and the apparent lack of production from the defensive tackle spot during the season.  As I said in the comments, this is because you’re seeing highlights and lowlights; it wasn’t feasible to show you all hundreds of snaps of our defensive tackles failing to be awesome.
Another factor, however, was that apparent weakness in the defensive line play turned out to be errors by the linebackers or secondary.  Yes, Julian Peterson, Larry Foote, Ernie Sims and DeAndre Levy are all massive upgrades from last season, when street free agent Ryan Nece was arguably our best linebacker.  Still, the LB play was wildly inconsistent throughout the season—often playing well when the line did not, and vice versa.
All that having been said, the run-stopping is still inadequate, and the interior pass rush is nonexistent.  Though flawed linebacker and safety play exacerbated the insufficiency up front, the insufficiency is real.
Bottom line: There’s no doubt that the defensive line is much stouter this season than last—that 0.72 YpC improvement in the run defense had to come from somewhere!—this is still a D+/C- line.  The Lions absolutely must add an impact starter.  Whether that is an elite DT talent in the draft—as in, with the #2 overall pick—or, by trade for a veteran starter, or by making a splash in the free agent market, it must be done.

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Old Mother Hubbard: Detroit Lions Offseason 2010

Michael Aanji Crowley

Last offseason, after the hubbub of the front office turmoil and coaching search had settled down, I took a long, hard look at the Lions’ roster, position by position.  I titled the series “Old Mother Hubbard”, with obvious implications—Matt Millen and Rod Marinelli had left the cupboard bare for Martin Mayhew and Jim Schwartz.

In the ensuing calendar year, the Lions went shopping time and time again.  They drove from store to store looking for sales, clipped coupons, brought in their cans--everything they could to try and fill those shelves.  They’d turned over half the roster before training camp, and the bottom ten spots on the roster churned like crazy throughout the season itself.

I haven’t counted yet, but I’d be willing to bet that over 80 players spent time on the Lions’ 2009 53-man roster.  Further, I’d be willing to bet that whatever the number is, it’s the highest in the NFL for last season.  Taking it even further yet, I’d be willing to bet that the NFLPA has a database that could be queried in such a way as to verify those numbers.  If anyone out there has access to such information, I would be extremely interested in seeing it.

For this season, I’ll be taking a look back at the old entries, reposting some of the highlights, and illustrating A) just how far the Lions’ roster has come, and B) how far yet it has to go to become competitive.  Also, we have a lot more information now about the kind of schemes the Lions employ, the types of players they’ve sought out, and the types of players they’d like to acquire.

Last season, due to all the coaching-search stuff, I didn’t get started until after the Senior Bowl—and it took me so long, I didn’t finish all the positions before the start of free agency.  This season, I have a head start—but what I have in mind for these things is going to take me a little longer.  So, if you folks will grant me your usual patience, I promise you’ll be at least partially rewarded.  First stop, defensive tackles . . .

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Three Cups Deep: . . . It Is Finished

 The Lions' season is officially over.  Their 2-14 campaign fell just short of media expectations, and well short of fans’ hopes.  For what it’s worth, I believe that if Matthew Stafford had been able to play all 16 games at 100%, the Lions would have won several more—but at this point, that’s completely meaningless.
We saw what Daunte Culpepper’s checkdown mania can accomplish when the game is close, and players are making plays around him: caretaking, game-managing, not-losing.  However, that isn’t enough to keep pace with a team whose quarterback can actually push the ball downfield and make plays.
There was one other bright spot in the game yesterday, besides Megatron’s perfectly-executed fade: Maurice Morris.  Morris had 16 carries for 65 yards (4.06 YpC), and caught 5 more balls for 41 yards.  He looked really effective; he ran with burst and drive.  Aaron Brown also contributed a few very nice plays—the Lions ran for exactly 100 yards with 25 carries.
Unfortunately, the defense made the running game completely irrelevant.  On back-to-back forth quarter drives, they surrendered two ~50-yard plays that precipitated 17 Bears points in the final ten minutes of play.  Culpepper couldn’t cash in from the Bears’ 14, Derrick Williams fumbled a kickoff, and that was that.
These two facts throw two monkeywrenches into the current ‘hot topic’ of the Lions’ fandom: “Which runningback will the Lions pick up to replace Kevin Smith?”  From drafting C.J. Spiller with the #2 overall pick, to kicking a late-rounder to Baltimore for Willis McGahee, suggestions on how to acquire a new starting tailback abound.
Am I missing something?  Kevin Smith was drafted at the top of the third round two years ago, has been very productive in each of his first two seasons, and will be at full speed by midseason next year.  His top two backups are under multi-year contracts, and have looked good in relief.  Further, the Lions have had the worst defense in football for two consecutive seasons!
Here's the ugly truth: the Lions could add a Spiller, a McGahee, Adrian Peterson—last year’s Greatest Runningback Ever—or even Chris Johnson, this year’s Greatest Runningback Ever, and it wouldn’t matter.  In every game this season, the Lions have had to abandon the run no later than the third quarter.  Barry Sanders could walk into Allen Park and ask for his job back tomorrow, and Matt Stafford would still be asked to throw fifty times a game in 2010.
No, the Lions cannot waste a draft pick, or any significant money, on a halfback.  Defensive line (x2), defensive back (x3), offensive guard, and wide receiver are all desperate, red-alert level squeaky wheels—they will, and should, get the grease.
This going to be a very un-interesting offseason.  Last year, from the final gun of the final game, anything and everything about the Lions was in question.  The front office, the head coach, the assistant coaches—all of it, everything.  Even as answers to those questions resolved, everything else got shaken up: the logo, the uniforms, over half of the roster.
This season, though?  There will be no shakeup, no destruction.  The front office is in place, the coaches are in place, and the direction is set: forward.  All the Lions have to do is add talent.  To be themselves, only better.  To learn how to win.  To get bigger, stronger, faster, tougher, smarter.  To grow up.
Oh, and preseason predictions, based on game-by-game breakdowns?  I told you all they’re completely useless wastes of time.

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Ndamukong the torpedoes

With the Lions’ loss last weekend, and the Browns’ win, the Lions are suddenly in a two-way tie for the #2 overall pick.  With only quarterback-starved St. Louis ahead of them, Lions fans everywhere are getting revved up for the possibility that Ndamukong Suh, the AP’s College Football Player of the Year, will soon don Honolulu Blue.

With Suh as the pass-rushing 3-technique tackle, and Hill as the run-stuffing 1-tech, the Lions would have their very own Williams Wall.  Several people emailed me (and have been emailing me!) about this exciting concept, and I discussed the notion at length in last week’s mailbag post.

That night, though, something was tickling at the back of my mind.  Fans, and talk show hosts, were already anointing Ndamukong Suh “the next Albert Haynesworth”.  Let’s be real for a minute: Haynesworth is currently listed at 6’-6”, 350 pounds.  Coming out of college, he was already 320.  As beastly as Suh looked against Texas, he sure didn’t look 320.

Here's the sobering reality: the Huskers list Suh at 6'-4", 300.  Wikipedia has him at 295.  GBN Report lists him at 300, and NFL Draft Scout weighs him out at 302.  Bottom line?  He ain’t no Haynesworth.  In fact, if we’re going to compare him to former Schwartz defensive linemen, he’s closer to Kevin Carter—a 6’-6”, 305-pound DE the Lions had extensive talks with this summer.

As a three-technique tackle in the Schwartz/Cunningham defense, I think Suh would be a little light in his loafers.  They want the DTs to hit gaps square and deny rushing lanes; that’s not Suh’s forte.  Frankly, Suh would be Rod Marinelli’s dream—he’s a prototypical Tampa 2 three-technique, a “skinny penetrator” who can burst past guards and get upfield fast.

Don’t get me wrong: Suh is an incredible player, and a dominating force.  But look at this dude:

Icon SMI

Check out how much of his bulk is in his arms, shoulders, and thighs.  He’s incredibly strong for his size, and possesses a huge amount of burst.  But this is not the type of body that drops anchor at the line of scrimmage, refuses to be moved, then casts off a double team to eat a running back.  This is a disruptor, a penetrator, a—dare I say it?—violator of offenses.  I wonder . . . could he play end?

Tom Kowalski has indicated in radio interviews, that if a massive, athletic, pass-rushing, run-stopping three-down defensive end had been available, the Lions might have drafted him over Matthew Stafford.

Icon SMI

I'm not saying . . . I'm just saying.

If Suh could drop five or ten pounds of fat, he'd be a virtual clone of Super Mario—especially if he got a little quicker as a result.  Further, of the few people who’ve been bold enough to admit that Suh’s game has any flaw at all, the consensus is that he plays a little too high, and uses his natural speed and upper body strength to go around blockers, rather than beat them at the point of attack.

Now, Big XII guards are not NFL right tackles; “going around” them is a lot harder.  Everyone will expect instant impact from “Kong”, but Suh will probably spend his first full season learning his craft.  As Mario Williams discovered, simply being bigger, faster, and stronger doesn’t cut it on Sundays. 

Unfortunately, this will probably be true whether he plays end or tackle for the Lions: he’s a little too big to play end, a little too small to play tackle, relies a little too much on his talent, and will need a little work on his technique before he can make an impact.  Sill, he IS the best DL prospect since Mario; I’m sure the Lions can, and will, find a use for him, should they be so lucky to draft him.

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Neither Rain, nor Snow, Nor Sleet . . . nor 2-11

It seems bizarre that with so many questions already answered about the 2009 Lions, there’s still so much left to discuss; the mailbox was flooded with excellent inquiries.  To work, then?  To work.  From Scott:

Mr. Inwinter:

Okay that right there is quality.  Very well done, sir.

Had a thought for you- there's been a lot of talk of the Lions being "Stafford's Team" after the Browns game and even though I watched the "miked up" about ten times, I dismissed most of it as hype. On the other hand, I'm relieved that Stafford's not playing this week because it frees me to ignore the game entirely and watch decent teams. So maybe the fact that I'm not even going to watch, and I can't be alone here, means the Lions are Stafford's team even moreso than the hype would indicate.

This is something that I've felt, too--and the statistics bear this out. Not only is Matthew Stafford the future of the franchise, he's the present.
Right now, the Lions’s chances to win any game are zero if he is not playing, and nonzero if he is.  I didn’t expect that to be true this season, but it is.  I can’t wait until Stafford gets back on the field, because these Culpepper games feel like preseason.  Scott also asked about the draft:

Btw, I haven't seen anyone predict this, but I think they go DE in round 1 in April followed by a roadgrading OG in round 2. Better to draft athletes in round one, and if it goes well, it'll rotate protection outside and help the middle. Adequate run-stuffers are usually available among FAs.

A large part of this will be determined by the talent on the board, and where the Lions pick.  The Lions could end up picking anywhere between 1st and 10th, depending on how other teams do—I think they’ll be somewhere in the 4th-6th slots, myself.  To me, there’s no question that both lines, and the defensive secondary need the most help.
Pass protecting OTs, and pass rushing DEs are the premier positions.  If there was a stud prospect at either position, and the Lions were drafting, say, 3rd, I could see it.  But the top OT prospect, from what I’ve seen, is Russel Okung—he’s an athlete and a technician, but (IMO) isn’t strong or bulky enough to step in and play at an elite level yet; he’ll be a project and that’s not what the Lions need.
I take exception with you on the DE/DT thing—and not because you’re wrong; adequate run-stuffers are often there to be had.  The issue is that the Lions want another Haynesworth-type, a natural 315+ world devourer who can singlehandedly collapse the pocket, shrug off double teams, eat running backs, and flush QBs to the sidelines.
Given that so many teams are switching to the 3-4, a he-beast like that is in demand more than ever.  Ndamukong Suh is the perfect fit; he and Sammie Hill could be giving people fits on every down for years.  Yes, the Lions would like a pass rusher too, but their needs are a little bit different . . .
From excellent commenter SomeChoi:

But here is my question: if we do draft defense, is there a place for tweeners such as Brian Orakpo in Gunther's D? Prototypical 4-3 DEs seemed to be rare in recent drafts.

It’s interesting that you ask that.  My understanding of the blueprint for the Lions defense is this: start with a Williams Wall-like DT pair.  A 330-pound NT, like Sammie Hill, and a 310+-pound UT, like Ndamukong Suh, would overwhelm opposing offensive lines.
Bracing them would be two 270-to-280-pound DEs who can rush the passer--but be big enough and strong enough to set a hard edge against the run.  This funnels runs and screens back into the middle—where Hill and Suh (or a Suh-like player) will stop them.
People questioned Schwartz’s sanity when he put Jared Devries in as a starter—and even more when he decried the “great loss” of Devries in camp—but he did so because DeVries was a perfect fit for what they wanted to do.
This is where the OLBs come in.  Since the DEs aren’t 260-pound Freeneyish terrors, both OLBs need to be able to blitz like crazy.  Of course, they can’t be total liabilities in coverage, either.  They’re looking for big athletes who can run and hit; ideally, we’re talking about two Julian Peterson-in-his-primes.
Gunther included the dwindling stock of defenders with size in his tackling tirade:

"I don't like it because the linebackers are getting smaller and they're putting all those coverage people on the field. The (Brian) Urlachers are tough to find,'' Cunningham said. "A lot of teams in the NFL are going to the 3-4 because of that.
"The linebackers that are coming out are the size of safeties: 6-foot and 220 pounds. You look at the Cincinnati Bengals' tackles and they're 6-7 and those linebackers can't even see where the back is half the time. There's a real problem on defense to find the right players and the right mix for you to compete in this league.

So there is your answer: a 250-pound pass rusher like Orakpo could come in and play, but only if he had a little more lateral agility and wouldn't mind being a full-time OLB. Don't forget, Avril fit that mold coming out of college, and they've bulked him up quite a bit. Of course, he's not doing very well . . .
SomeChoi also added:

I'm one of the few who agree with Killer - Lions are better served drafting offense. The defense was good enough to keep us competitive in most games and a decent offense would've won us perhaps 4 more games. But I'm particularly worried we'll lose Calvin if we don't help him realize his potential soon, if we didn't lose him already. Not to mention being fearful for Staff's life. And Mayhew better be losing sleep over whether Pettigrew becomes a playmaker. Otherwise, passing on Oher will haunt him forever.

I'd love to agree with this line of thought: after all, the Colts have been an amazing offense paired with a bad-to-middling defense for over a decade now, and they've been consistently elite.  But the Lions’ defense . . . you guys, it’s so bad.  It’s truly terrible.   No matter how good the offense gets, they won’t be able to consistently outscore what this defense is allowing.
When Matthew Stafford has played, the Lions have been at the bottom of the middle third of the league in scoring—but the defense has been allowing almost double that number of points!  No, the Lions have to at least patch the defensive dam before they can finish constructing their offense.
I received several emails to the effect of, “If not Suh, then who?”  Lopper chipped in his suggestion:

In my opinion, the next best guy to take has to be Berry. The examples of a safety impacting a defense are all over the NFL this year. The Steelers with and without Polamalu, and just yesterday when Delmas was out it was painful watching White and Pearson bouncing off tackles. It seems like big plays against is the biggest problem for the Lions, and a safety pairing of Delmas and Berry would be the best way to stop them from happening. I might even rather see them draft Berry over McCoy depending on how things shake out in the off season.

Time for my usual disclaimer: I watch practically zero non-Big Ten college football; I haven’t yet seen most of these SEC and Big 12 players in action.  In general, the idea of pairing Delmas with another monster safety is appealing.
However, the defense is really weak at the line of scrimmage.  Blowing, in consecutive years, a high second-round pick and a high first-round pick on safeties, thinking they’ll clean up everything the corners and front seven let through . . . well, it seems like putting the cart before the horse.
Further, for as much as everyone raves about Polamalu, Ed Reed, Bob Sanders, and the difference those guys make to their defense, none of those guys were drafted in the top five, or even top ten.  I was curious: over the past few years, what safeties have been drafted high at the top of the first—and have they worked out?
LaRon Landry was the sixth overall pick of 2007.  Michael Huff was seventh overall in 2006, Antrel Rolle was selected eighth in 2005 (as a corner), and the late Sean Taylor was fifth in 2004.  The Other Roy Williams was the eighth overall in 2002—can you believe he’s a seven-year vet?
. . . that completes the list of Top Ten safeties of the past 10 years.  Sean Taylor, a fifth overall pick, was the highest-drafted safety in that time—and was developing into one of the most dominating players in the league, before his untimely death.  But the rest of these guys were either definite disappointments, or are too young to evaluate right now.
I believe that Berry’s a really nice talent, and pairing him with Delmas would indeed be SO AWESOME--but really good safeties can be had in the second, third, and fourth rounds.  Elite linemen, however, are pretty much only available at the top of the draft.
Joe asked:

One of my biggest questions that the usual suspects of Lions' media types don't seem to cover is WHERE exactly are the weaknesses on this team. I know it's easy to throw everyone under the bus and just flatly state we lack talent, but are you able to see exactly where? If you only had ONE pick in the draft or could only acquire ONE free agent with which to upgrade this team and could only draft/sign based on position, which position do you think most needs a serious upgrade?

Whew.  I think the Lions’ biggest problem positions are the non-Mega wideouts, the offensive guards, the defensive line, and the cornerbacks.  Since, again, guards can be had in the second or third round—and, again, I believe the Lions have to have a defensive focus in this draft—I’d look to fix either the line or the corners.  Joe said:

Personally, I think their biggest problem seems to be a lack of any pass rush, exposing the secondary which often has receivers initially covered. However, even the league's best cover corner can't cover a WR for 10 seconds while the QB assesses the entire field without the slightest pressure. I think DE is the biggest weakness on this team. We can't even seem to get pressure with blitzes and often get burned early, forcing Gunther to back off and only send four.

That’s a very strong argument.  With the addition of an elite pass rusher—a 270-plus-pound three-down beast, not an Orakpo or Dumervil—it would “shorten the field” for the corners.  I’ve said before that Will James would be much better if he never had to cover a receiver more than ten yards downfield; if we had a monster pass rush it would minimize the number of times he’d have to.  Killer even said last season that if there were a Mario Williams at the top of the 2009 draft, the Lions would have taken him over Stafford.
Let me be clear: I agree with that. If we could forklift Mario Williams from the Texans to the Lions, he’d make all the difference in the world.  Unfortuantely, there’s no Mario Williams in this draft—but keep an eye on this guy if he comes out.  At 6’-4”, listed at 272 going into his senior year, Derrick Morgan might well show up for the combine as the three-down end the Lions are looking for.
However, if the Lions end up with either of the explosive “under” tackles—Suh or McCoy—it’ll make nearly as strong of an impact.  I don’t see anyone running on a three-tackle rotation of Grady Jackson, a blossoming Sammie Hill, and Suh or McCoy.  Further, Hill and (Suh || McCoy) would be an incredibly athletic inside pairing; both could collapse the pocket with strength, and pursue if the QB scrambles—similar to the dynamic we saw with Big Daddy and Big Baby, only younger and faster.
Finally, don't forget that the shortest path to the quarterback is up the middle; a player like (Suh || McCoy) could “shorten the field” the way a DE could, and also demand double-teams that would make it easier for our existing DEs.
So, if I could add just one player, it’d be either a monster, three-down, athletic, pass-rushing DE, or a monster, three-down, athletic, pass-rushing DT.
. . . that'll do it for this week's mailbag.  Thanks again for all the great submissions, folks!

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